OpenAI 的领先优势正在快速缩小
TL;DR · AI 摘要
OpenAI的市场主导地位正在被Google和DeepSeek等竞争者迅速侵蚀，同时其财务状况恶化，微软等主要投资者也在疏远。
核心要点
- OpenAI的市场份额已跌破50%，Google和DeepSeek正在迅速抢占市场。
- 2025年OpenAI营收130.7亿美元，但支出高达340亿美元，亏损扩大近8倍。
- 微软正在考虑将Copilot Cowork转向DeepSeek，表明对OpenAI的信心下降。
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- OpenAI的挑战
- 市场竞争加剧
- Google和DeepSeek的崛起
- 用户对产品差异感知不足
- 财务压力
- 2025年亏损扩大近8倍
- 主要投资者疏远
- 政策影响
- 美国政府对Anthropic的干预
- 潜在竞争者Elon的介入
金句 / Highlights
值得收藏与分享的关键句。
OpenAI的市场占有率首次跌破50%，Google和DeepSeek正在迅速抢占市场。
2025年OpenAI营收130.7亿美元，但支出高达340亿美元，亏损扩大近8倍。
微软正在考虑将Copilot Cowork转向DeepSeek，表明对OpenAI的信心下降。
OpenAI’s lead is dwindling fast - by Gary Marcus
OpenAI’s lead is dwindling fast
As James Carville might have said, “It’s the lack of a moat, stupid”
Gary Marcus
Jun 16, 2026
BURKOV
@burkov
OpenAI's market share drops below 50% for the first time. Google is quickly eating into it. The pure LLM business doesn't have stickiness. Regular people don't see a difference between ChatGPT and Gemini, and because they already have their entire online ecosystem with Google,
7:23 PM · Jun 16, 2026
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As I predicted here in January 2024 , with everybody building the same thing, there can be no moat:
That’s been catching to OpenAI ever since. The numbers don’t lie.
§
And it’s not just the dwindling market share. Microsoft was for a long time OpenAI’s biggest backer, but they have increasingly backing away.
Today they apparently just distanced themselves even further:
NIK
@ns123abc
BREAKING: Microsoft exploring DeepSeek over OpenAI and Anthropic as Copilot Cowork moves to usage-based pricing “We have users who do hundreds of tasks a week… the consequence is the costs can go very high...” Jevons paradox
5:22 PM · Jun 16, 2026
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When your biggest investor starts openly contemplating outsourcing your main product to China, it is what they call in business a strong negative signal .
Sometimes of course bad things come in threes.
The third bad thing is that Ed Zitron just reported that OpenAI is burning money even faster than people thought:
Ed Zitron
@edzitron
Exclusive: I have seen OpenAI's audited financials for 2024 and 2025. In 2025, OpenAI had $13.07 billion in revenue and $34 billion in costs. $867 million of its revenue came from SoftBank, and $303 million came from Microsoft.
wheresyoured.at
Exclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 Billion
3:59 AM · Jun 16, 2026
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You can’t multiply your losses every year by 8x (or even close) for very long.
To be sure, Washington might succeed in knee-capping Anthropic, rescuing Josh Kushner’s investment in OpenAI:
The Economist
@TheEconomist
The American government’s primary aim may not have been to control foreign access to frontier AI models. Instead, it appears to have used export controls as a convenient way to target Anthropic
econ.st/4uBDO0m
Photo: Bloomberg via Getty Images
10:00 PM · Jun 14, 2026
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But if Washington doesn’t succeed in killing of Anthropic, and instead actually inadvertently helps them, as I joked here…
@GaryMarcus
My government tried to ban my AI, and all I got was this lousy t-shirt.
9:14 PM · Jun 14, 2026
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.. then I’ll stand by this set of predictions from two weeks ago…
… except to say that another dark horse bidder is Elon. Wouldn’t that be an interesting twist?