94%国会议员支持战争的真正原因

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[0:00] The thing that I think America's at risk

[0:02] of running out of Kevin through is is is

[0:04] Patience anduh support. And if you

[0:07] think about the sort of existential risk

[0:09] to Trump, he you know, if you looking at

[0:11] these numbers, so this this first line

[0:13] you see is his disapproval going up and

[0:15] his approval going down. If I'm the

[0:17] supreme leader in Iran, I go, listen,

[0:20] this guy has got I mean there's an

[0:22] election in 2028 in the United States.

[0:25] This guy has got months. So in terms of

[0:28] you talk about you know the art of a

[0:29] deal and doing a good deal if you know

[0:31] your counter party in the deal

[0:32]_negotiation straight has months to do a

[0:35] deal or they are going to be thrown out

[0:37] of power. If I'm one of those 150,000

[0:40] people or the supreme leader honestly

[0:41] I'm going to wait it out. I think I have

[0:43] all the cards. If you have almost no you

[0:45] know they can survive again you said

[0:47] they oppress their people. They don't

[0:49] seem to have much morality around

[0:50] that. could they wait it out a couple of

[0:52] months knowing that Trump can't because

[0:55] the midterms are coming and then the

[0:56] election's coming? I

[0:58] >> think you're making a natural point on that

[0:59] one. But I you know, the one thing I

[1:01] would say, Stephen, is that it's not

[1:03] just Trump you're waiting out. You got

[1:06] chi. It's not just Trump, the big

[1:10] boy. You got two supreme leaders. You

[1:12] got who is running the show this

[1:14] week inIran

[1:17] and you've got the Chinese leader, the

[1:20] supreme leader. And the only way he gets

[1:22] to say the supreme leader is people eat,

[1:25] people have jobs there, and his economy

[1:28] stays buoyant. That's the only way he

[1:31] stays in power. So

[1:34] you're you're serving two masters.

[1:36] You're you're trying to time the 28

[1:38] decision you talked about versus how

[1:40] pissed off the big boy is going to get

[1:42] in China. He has no choice. 48% of his

[1:46] energy comes through that straight at

[1:49] some point. I think before November,

[1:53] Elsa mini in China squashesIran heads like

[1:56] teenage pimples. That's what

[1:58] I think is going to happen. The other

[1:59] thing just to give you the other thought

[2:01] that's been surging in my head since

[2:02] I've interviewed all these people on

[2:03] this subject is that Trump and FD Vance

[2:06] repeatedly say they don't even know who

[2:07] they're_negotiating with because they've

[2:10] knocked out every layer it seems of

[2:12] leadership. They on one hand brag about

[2:15] that but then I would also suggest that

[2:18] V Vance actually talked about or Marco

[2:20] Rubio talked about the fact that they

[2:21] can't get the carrier pigeon to the men

[2:24]Iran soldiers that are still shooting

[2:26] the missiles. And this talk this speaks

[2:28] to the men])** of order in Iran because you've

[2:31] wiped out all the leadership. So I even

[2:34] wrong if you can actually do a deal at this point with

[2:36]Iran, Jenk.

[2:38] >> No, we can remember we almost had a deal

[2:40] this weekend. Uh and the deal is

[2:42] actually kind of obvious. Open up the straight of Hormuz. We lift a block.

[2:45]Iran says us we'll find the highlyenriched uranium and hand it over.

[2:48] We won't have a weapons program and

[2:50] we'll have international monisors for the uranium that we enrich to just energy levels, not weather levels. Boom.

[2:59]Done. Eas])** through but as I explained before, we can't get it done because

[3:01] Israel says, "No, I want perment."

[3:03] >> How do you know it's Israel? How do you know it's Israel?

[3:05] >> Yeah, there's no question. So first of all in the before the}"

[3:10] times with a rare good article that explained

Kevin, this fantasy world where the [4:14] regime in伊朗 is just going to give up.

[4:17] It's never going to happen. We already [4:19] tried to regime change it. It it didn't [4:21] work at all. They have an infinite [4:23] infrastructure set up so it doesn't [4:26] real matter how many people you knock [4:28] off at the top, someone else rises up, [4:30] someone else rises up out of that [4:32] 150,000 people that that Kevin's talking [4:36] about. Now, China, he's got a theory [4:38] that可能 China puts pressure on him. [4:40] That's not a crazy theory. I get it. At [4:42] the same time, China's looking at Russia [4:44] and America and going, "Look at these [4:45]schmucks. Russia is wasting their entire [4:48] military and resources in Ukraine. And [4:50] now America's totally wasting their [4:52] military and resources in Iran. And [4:55] these two other knuckleheads keep [4:57] punching themselves in the face. [4:59] Meanwhile, we haven't started any wars [5:00] if you're China. And so we haven't had [5:02] any of those costs. We haven't had [5:04] of those problems. We don't have that PR [5:06] problem. So when we go into Africa or [5:07] Latin America and we say, "Hey, you know [5:09] what? We're going to build roads and [5:10] bridges for you guys and America's going [5:12] to bomb you. So which one do [5:14] you want to do a deal with?" Now a lot [5:16] of them are saying, "No, we want to do a [5:18] deal with China" because they don't do [5:19] wood. Uh instead they build [5:21] infrastructure. Look, it just is a [5:23] business strategy, an economic strategy [5:25] that is much much smarter. But we can't [5:27] go into aSmart strategy because Isreal [5:29] won't let us. Every time we go towards [5:32] peace, Israel blocks it. And today, this [5:34] weekend, we had both Republicans and [5:38] Democrats go out and say we shouldn't do [5:40] the peace deal. You want to know what [5:41] the one connective tissue? Every one of [5:44] those politicians had over a million [5:46] dollars given to them by the Israeli [5:47] lobby. So that's just the stone cold [5:50] reality of it. And so in terms of energy [5:52] here at home, Kevin says we're not going [5:54] to run out. But he also recognized [5:56] that no, wait a minute, that has nothing [5:58] to do with anything. We oil goes into a [6:00] world market and it is controlled by [6:03] world prices. So the fact that we are [6:05] so-called energy independent means [6:07] nothing. That's not even our oil or gas. [6:09] It's Exon Mobile and Chevrons. So they [6:12] could sell it anywhere they want and [6:13] they do sell it anywhere they want. The [6:15] only way to get them to sell it [6:17] exclusively in America is to do [6:19] socialism and say you're not allowed to [6:21] sell that oil anywhere else. I don't [6:23] think Kevin wants that. So that means we [6:26] are definitely not energyindependent. We [6:28] are definitely tied to global oil prices [6:31] and that means again more disaster. When [6:34] you get to trouble, boy, the Israelis [6:36] used AI in Gaza. They did this [6:39] program called Where's Dadd [6:42] they would pick a target [6:45] connected to someone in Gaza at some [6:47] point, but they did, you know, he called [6:50] this boy and the other boy called other [6:51] boy and that lady now has a cell [6:53] phone. Good enough. But they would wait until [6:55] their target went home so they would [6:58] bomb the house and kill their entire [7:00] family. If that's the future of [7:02] in the military, we're all screwed. So, [7:05] they've been testing all of this [7:07] in Gaza and now they're doing in [7:10]Iran. What I'm worried about is what Larry [7:11] Ellison said. He said, "OH, we now can [7:14] track all citizens anywhere and we're [7:17] going to bring that technology to [7:18] America." I don't want their [7:21] surveillance state. I don [7:23] anything to do with the Israelis. Let's [7:26] just come home and serve American [7:28] interest. That's what I keep. That's but the good news, Stephen, is almost all [7:29] the voters agree. 80% of Democrats now [7:32] have a negative view of [7:33] and say, "No, take care of American [7:36] first. When you get to under 50 years old in [7:38] all parties, Isreal now has a negative [7:41] rating." The only people left in this [7:44] country who still want to serve [7:46] Isreal are our politicians and our [7:48] medium. That's it. The rest of us can't stand [7:50] them anymore and the]) money they take [7:52] from us. And Kevin, as a business [7:57] what are we doing? why are we letting [7:59] this country the size of their [8:00] population is the equivalent of Papa New [8:02] Guinea lead us around by the [8:04] and get us into]) taxes. You know, this [8:06]]) inIran is not helping us. And and if they continue and they bomb the [8:08] infrastructure inIran and the [8:10] countries, you know, it's going to take [8:13] 5 to 10 years to build and it is going [8:15] to be a global economic [8:17] disaster. What are we doing? We [8:18] get rid of the [8:20] Israelis. I don't mean that in a [8:22] physical way. just get them out of our [8:23] government and make decisions based on [8:24]])])]))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))**

translation:

[8:26] What's good for America is to be 10,000 times better off and then we could end.

[8:28] >> I think if there was a path to peace in the Middle East, it's one of the largest consumer markets on earth. JustIran itself has 100 million people. They buy stuff. And you know, I think about the future of a global economy. If there was stability there, uh including peace with Isreal and their neighbors, that would be an am

[8:48] >> I think it's natural to be a consumer. So I'm uh in the camp that says, look, I don't know how this thing gets解决. nobody does. I'm surjective that there's no peace deal this weekend, but hopefully there'll be one soon. But in the end, most people want peace, period. unless you're, you know, you're crazy as a crazy leader and you just want to kill everyone. those people don't last that long. They don't seem to last that long in Iran right now, but you're right. They keep popping up. But at some point, I don't know. I think

translation:

[13:06] 所有这个],$ and I get it. I mean

[13:08] they're they're very successful

[13:09] 政治家。我爱 AOC。她 just spews

[13:12] out stuff and raises five dollars at a

[13:15] time. You know it's smart. It's a great

[13:17] social media strategy. And same with

[13:19] Bernie. I mean, the guy But will she be

[13:22] president of the United States? I don't

[13:23] think so. And will Bernie get there? No.

[13:26] Why does everybody leave Massachusetts,

[13:29] including my son, because you can't

[13:31] raise any money there to start a company? The super tax is dumb. And

[13:33] so, it it's sort of it's it's a it's a

[13:39] it's a mixed pot of ideas and

[13:41] competition. But in the end, and I

[13:44] always say this to my students because I

[13:46] I what I find so interesting about, you

[13:49] know, a 20 a cohort of 23 year old that

[13:51] I teach in in business classes and

[13:54] iron classes, they're all socialists,

[13:56] all of them, until they get their first

[13:59] paycheck. Then they become capitalists

[14:02] when they see something called tax. And

[14:05] they wonder, "Wait a second, wait a

[14:07] second. Where'd half my salary go?

[14:09] What's this?" And I say, "That's tax."

[14:12] Now, if you want it to be 80% tax, you

[14:15] follow that trail that you had before I

[14:18] started teaching you, you were a

[14:20]社会主义. And now, what are you? well,

[14:22] I can't pay 50% tax. No kids. well,

[14:26] move to Austin, move to Tennessee, you

[14:28] move to Florida like everyone else is

[14:30] doing, and you'll pay 16%. And so I love

[14:33] the fact that everyone's an idealist

[14:36]社会主义 until they get their first paycheck. And

[14:40] that's how America works. It's a

[14:42] wonderful thing. And I say it's good

[14:45] because you all everybody has a vote. We

[14:48] continue to believe in that. And I think

[14:51] the debate rages on and it's great. And

[14:54] everyone has an opinion. I have my own,

[14:56] others have their own. And I love to be

[14:58] part of this course. You know, one of

[14:59] the reasons I keep doing what I do is I

[15:01] love to get into the with

[15:03] everyone. I like to say the things I

[15:05] say because I

[15:08] been there before. I'm wise. I've seen

[15:12] this movie before. That's what I tell my

[15:14] students and it freaks them out.

[15:15] >> Just a yes or no answer in this

[15:17] question. So in 2028, do you think

[15:19] another capitalistic sorted]) focus]) candidate will win the election

[15:21] >> or do you think a Democrat or a

[15:24]社会主义 will? I don't think

[15:27]社会主义's going to make it in America at the

[17:37] safe. Uh, so for a little while between

[17:39] 2019 and 2023, crime did rise in some of the big cities. We talked about

[17:42] on the air. were very honest about it.

[17:44] It took some heat from the left on it,

[17:47] but crime's gone down significantly in

[17:49] 24 and 25. So, I don't think those are

[17:51] real issues anymore. In terms of uh our

[17:54] economic model, we need a couple of

[17:55] clarifications here. So, as I said

[17:58] earlier, we we really do corporism in

[18:00] America. And another word for that or

[18:02] phase for it is crony资本主义. So,

[18:04] we would be lucky to get back to

[18:06] capitalism, let alone going all the way to

[18:09] because right now we don't have

[18:10] capitalism. We don't have free markets.

[18:12] We have uh every industry has captured

[18:14] the government. They've bribed all of

[18:16] our politicians. We can't_negate prices. Uh these are the I mean that is

[18:21] the most社会主义 thing I've ever heard

[18:23] except社会主义 for corporations. It's

[18:25] mindbending. And that's and that's what

[18:27] corporism is. It's totally run a muck

[18:29] now. And why is that? Because of money

[18:31] and politics. So in order to fix all of

[18:33] these problems and to get back to real

[18:35] free markets and资本主义, you have

[18:37] got to get the money out of politics. If

[18:40] you don't do that, you're just on a

[18:42] treadmill of corruption and it never

[18:44] ends. And you get BS guys like Biden and

[18:47]])** who come in and tell you that

[18:48] they're going to drain the swamp and

[18:49] then they fill it up even more and even

[18:51] more. So they and they serve all their

[18:53] donors. So in terms of社会主义, we

[18:56] never define what it means. The reality

[18:58] is most governments are mixed economies.

[19:01] Not most games, almost all games are mixed

[19:02] economies. So when we say社会主义, are we

[19:05]立方 or are we]) about立方 or are we]) about the

[19:08] Netherlands? Because you could argue

[19:10] that Northern Europe does社会主义. Uh

[19:13] they have a lot more things that are

[19:14] public rather than private. But do they

[19:17] have private businesses? Of course they

[19:18] do, right? So I would argue that

[19:20] democratic资本主义 is the right way

[19:22] to go where we have capitalism, but it

[19:24] is checked byometry. the CEOs and the

[19:27] the shareholders look out for the

[19:28] companies and the legislators and the prime

[19:30] prime(minisors are supposed to look out for the

[19:32] customers and check the corporations so they don't

[19:34] run a muck. I think Northern Europe's

[19:36](probably the closest one to that. In terms

[19:39] of candidates here in America,

[19:42] again, I would have to say Roana is

[19:44] the closest one to that. And so if you

[19:46] go too far left, you get it that that's

[19:49] hard, even on identity polities, which again we don't think that's the right direction to go and it just divides our country. So I don't think that that type of far-left candidate can win a national election. But after what])** does this to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done to this country, what he's already done