--- title: "Prediction markets certainly should trump polls virtually 100% of the time. Polls suffer from a vari..." source_name: "Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸(@pmarca)" original_url: "https://x.com/pmarca/status/2047515785225285741" canonical_url: "https://www.traeai.com/articles/55dfdeb9-0bb4-42a8-a4ac-e834895c3259" content_type: "tweet" language: "中文" score: 5 tags: [] published_at: "2026-04-24T03:19:38+00:00" created_at: "2026-04-24T06:34:44.4374+00:00" --- # Prediction markets certainly should trump polls virtually 100% of the time. Polls suffer from a vari... Canonical URL: https://www.traeai.com/articles/55dfdeb9-0bb4-42a8-a4ac-e834895c3259 Original source: https://x.com/pmarca/status/2047515785225285741 ## Summary traeai 为开发者、研究员和内容团队筛选高质量 AI 技术内容，提供摘要、评分、趋势雷达与一键内容产出。 ## Key Takeaways - - - ## Content Title: Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on X: "Prediction markets certainly should trump polls virtually 100% of the time. Polls suffer from a variety of well-known biases and dysfunctions; prediction markets incent truth seeking via skin in the game." / X URL Source: http://x.com/pmarca/status/2047515785225285741 Markdown Content: # Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on X: "Prediction markets certainly should trump polls virtually 100% of the time. Polls suffer from a variety of well-known biases and dysfunctions; prediction markets incent truth seeking via skin in the game." / X Don’t miss what’s happening People on X are the first to know. [Log in](http://x.com/login) [Sign up](http://x.com/i/flow/signup) # [](http://x.com/) ## Post See new posts # Conversation [![Image 2](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1820716712234303489/9GpKDZjq_normal.jpg)](http://x.com/pmarca) [Marc Andreessen ![Image 3: 🇺🇸](https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1fa-1f1f8.svg) ![Image 4](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1919488160125616128/QAZXTMEj_bigger.png)](http://x.com/pmarca) [@pmarca](http://x.com/pmarca) Prediction markets certainly should trump polls virtually 100% of the time. Polls suffer from a variety of well-known biases and dysfunctions; prediction markets incent truth seeking via skin in the game. Quote ![Image 5](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1940818025537482752/eMsuRJq3_mini.jpg) Andy Hall @ahall_research · 15h In the clip economy, prediction markets are replacing polls as the source of truth. My new research with @PairieK: TikTok and YouTube videos about politics now cite prediction markets more than polls. To "monitor the situation" we need real-time info on many topics. Prediction x.com/MTSlive/status… [![Image 6: Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HGmZIlmaQAAJ9hf?format=png&name=small)](http://x.com/ahall_research/status/2047337145971732693/photo/1) [3:19 AM · Apr 24, 2026](http://x.com/pmarca/status/2047515785225285741) · [42.1K Views](http://x.com/pmarca/status/2047515785225285741/analytics) 55 33 267 22 Read 55 replies ## New to X? Sign up now to get your own personalized timeline! Sign up with Apple [Create account](http://x.com/i/flow/signup) By signing up, you agree to the [Terms of Service](https://x.com/tos) and [Privacy Policy](https://x.com/privacy), including [Cookie Use.](https://help.x.com/rules-and-policies/twitter-cookies) ## Relevant people * [![Image 7](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1820716712234303489/9GpKDZjq_normal.jpg)](http://x.com/pmarca) [Marc Andreessen ![Image 8: 🇺🇸](https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1fa-1f1f8.svg) ![Image 9](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1919488160125616128/QAZXTMEj_bigger.png)](http://x.com/pmarca) [@pmarca](http://x.com/pmarca) Follow Click to Follow pmarca You’re not talking to someone who woke up a loser. That loser attitude, that loser premise makes no sense to me. * [![Image 10](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1940818025537482752/eMsuRJq3_normal.jpg)](http://x.com/ahall_research) [Andy Hall](http://x.com/ahall_research) [@ahall_research](http://x.com/ahall_research) Follow Click to Follow ahall_research Building free systems. Prof [@StanfordGSB](http://x.com/StanfordGSB) , Senior Fellow [@HooverInst](http://x.com/HooverInst) . Advisor, [@a16zcrypto](http://x.com/a16zcrypto) , [@ByForumAI](http://x.com/ByForumAI) . Writing at [http://freesystems.substack.com](https://t.co/K0BfKKi4sM) # Trending now ## What’s happening Gaming · Trending #zzzSpecialProgram Music · Trending #Kehlani Sports · Trending Edge Sports · Trending Lemon Trending with [Steelers](http://x.com/search?q=Steelers&src=trend_click&vertical=trends), [Eagles](http://x.com/search?q=Eagles&src=trend_click&vertical=trends) [Show more](http://x.com/explore/tabs/for-you) [Terms of Service](https://x.com/tos) | [Privacy Policy](https://x.com/privacy) | [Cookie Policy](https://support.x.com/articles/20170514) | [Accessibility](https://help.x.com/resources/accessibility) | [Ads info](https://business.x.com/en/help/troubleshooting/how-twitter-ads-work.html?ref=web-twc-ao-gbl-adsinfo&utm_source=twc&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=ao&utm_content=adsinfo) | More © 2026 X Corp.