To anticipate that Anthropic will have $2T revenue in 2030 is a perfect example of the trillion poun...
TL;DR · AI 摘要
Gary Marcus批评了对Anthropic未来收入的过高预期，指出这种预测基于不切实际的增长假设。
核心要点
- Anthropic预计2030年收入达到2万亿美元是个错误的假设。
- 婴儿体重增长的例子说明短期快速增长不可持续。
- 大多数指数增长不会一直持续。
金句 / Highlights
值得收藏与分享的关键句。
To anticipate that Anthropic will have $2T revenue in 2030 is a perfect example of the trillion pound baby fallacy.
Just because a baby doubles in weight in its first four months doesn’t mean it will continue to doubling every few months til he goes away to college.
People around here need to learn that most exponentials don’t last.
Just because a baby doubles in weight in its first four months doesn’t mean it will continue to doubling every few months til he goes away to college.
People https://t.co/Th4FFw2OvZ" / X
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To anticipate that Anthropic will have $2T revenue in 2030 is a perfect example of the trillion pound baby fallacy. Just because a baby doubles in weight in its first four months doesn’t mean it will continue to doubling every few months til he goes away to college. People around here need to learn that most exponentials don’t last.
Quote
Steve Hou
@stevehou
3h
Saw a snippet of this yesterday in which @DavidSacks was forecasting Anthropic having some $2T revenue “more than the Mag 7 combined” by extrapolating its growth over the last 2 years. Obviously silly stuff. It reminds me of some of the crazy things said on the All In podcasts x.com/theallinpod/st…